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GOP race for Arizona governor becomes 2024 proxy war as Ducey defies Trump
In a last major test of Donald Trump’s Republican power this year, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey endorsed a potential successor who’s going up against Trump's pick.
Politics
In a last major test of Donald Trump’s Republican power this year, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey on Thursday endorsed a potential successor who’s going up against a candidate backed by the former president.
Ducey’s defiance of Trump in supporting Karrin Taylor Robson over Kari Lake marks the third swing-state governor’s race — following primaries in Georgia and Pennsylvania — in which Republican establishment figures have resisted Trump and his preferred candidates.
The fight in Arizona, as in the two other swing states, is as much about relitigating the 2020 election, which Trump lost, as it is about exerting his influence in the GOP as he weighs another White House bid.
“The Arizona governor’s primary is the purest race in the country for showing MAGA versus the Republican establishment,” said Steve Bannon, who was a top Trump White House adviser. “This is a proxy war on, really, 2024.”
Ducey made his endorsement a week after one of the other establishment figures in the race, former Rep. Matt Salmon, dropped out of the primary and threw his support behind Taylor Robson out of fear that Lake would win on Aug. 2 and prove unelectable beyond the Republican base in November. State Senate President Karen Fann and national figures like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia also support Taylor Robson, a real estate developer who has been catching up to Lake in the polls.
Former Vice President Mike Pence could be next to offer his support, according to an adviser who wasn’t authorized to publicly disclose their private conversations. Pence is a friend of Ducey’s, and both men were attacked by Trump and his supporters for failing to help overturn the 2020 election based on the falsehood of widespread, rampant fraud.
A Pence endorsement of Taylor Robson would lay bare the presidential primary stakes in the governor’s race and shine a spotlight on the personal drama between Trump and his estranged former running mate, who is considering a White House bid of his own. A Pence endorsement would also come with a dose of payback: Lake criticized Pence last month on Newsmax for his visit to the U.S.-Mexico border and his refusal to help overturn the 2020 election.
“I don’t think he’s got a snowball’s chance in Phoenix to win,” Lake said of Pence’s potential presidential bid. “There’s a lot of people [who] are disappointed at Mike Pence for his actions on Jan. 6.”
Pence’s adviser called Lake’s remarks “nonsensical.”
For months, Lake, a former TV news anchor, looked the sure favorite in the primary. She had Trump’s backing, and she built a lead in the polls while repeating the unfounded claim that the 2020 election was stolen. She also called for prosecuting perceived conspirators and said lawmakers should go so far as to decertify the election.
But the state of the race changed dramatically over the last few weeks as Taylor Robson spent millions of dollars on ads and began consolidating support from a GOP establishment hoping to exert its own influence on the race.
The race already was one of the most important primaries this year, with the winner likely to take on Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in a state that played a pivotal role in deciding the 2020 election and where the governor will play a role in certifying the 2024 results.
A Taylor Robson adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the dynamics of the race candidly, said Ducey’s endorsement is certain to boost the campaign.
“It is obviously a prominent signal not only to voters in the state, but to Republican influencers nationwide,” the adviser said. “And so I think you’re going to see more endorsements follow.”
Taylor Robson backers hope Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — the second-most-popular Republican in the nation behind Trump and a potential 2024 presidential candidate — gets involved, as well.
“I think every campaign would like to have Governor DeSantis’ endorsement,” the Taylor Robson adviser said. “So there’s no question about that. We would welcome it, obviously.”
But those familiar with DeSantis’ thinking say he is unlikely to wade into the Arizona race, especially because he doesn’t want to fuel public speculation about his White House aspirations.
Early last year, however, DeSantis became quietly involved in the race when he shepherded Salmon — a friend of the governor’s from their days in Congress, when they helped launch the House Freedom Caucus — to meet with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida in the hope of securing an endorsement, said two sources with direct knowledge of the meeting.
The sources said Salmon felt that the Trump endorsement would happen but that Trump’s attitude changed when Salmon refused to say the 2020 election had been stolen. Lake had no such reservations, the sources said.