www.cbssports.com
NBA offense has plummeted to start 2021-22 season, and changes in officiating might not be the only cause
The new rules have slowed some of the league's best scorers, but defenses might also finally be catching up
Sports
SAN FRANCISCO -- If you've watched a full NBA basketball game this season, you've surely noticed a distinct difference from previous years. Plays in which offensive players hurl themselves into a defender, which have traditionally resulted in a defensive foul that led to free throws, are increasingly being ignored by officials or deemed offensive fouls. This is one of the NBA's points of emphasis this season, designed to crack down on "overt, abrupt or abnormal Non-Basketball Moves" from offensive players, which had become a staple in the arsenals of some of the league's most prolific scorers.
Outside of some of those aforementioned scorers who feel many genuine defensive fouls are now going unpenalized, the rule changes have been met almost universally with approval, from fans to coaches to broadcasters to players.
"Can I say how satisfying it is to watch the game without all those terrible calls? Guys cheating the game and grabbing guys and getting the foul," said Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green, a six-time All-Defensive Team honoree and former Defensive Player of the Year. "I've been really enjoying watching basketball this year. I kind of had stopped watching the NBA a bit because it was just too flailing and flopping and guys cheating the game and getting free throws. So I think that's been great."
Correlation does not prove causation, but there's a corresponding change occurring in the NBA this season alongside the modified officiating that's worth noting: Scoring has plummeted.
Points per game across the league has gone up for six consecutive seasons. Offensive efficiency -- the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions -- has steadily increased from 105.6 in 2014-15 to a record 112.3 last season. All 10 of the top offensive ratings in NBA history have come from teams playing in the past three seasons, and the top seven are all from last season alone.
Given the offensive explosion of the past few years, the staggering difference in this season's numbers is impossible to ignore. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the average NBA offensive rating has dropped more than six points, from 112.3 last season to 106.2, which would be the lowest mark since the 2014-15 season. Points per game have also plunged from 112.1 last season to 107.6 this season, even with with 3-point attempts and pace (possessions per 48 minutes) both increasing.
Teams scored 90 points or fewer in roughly seven percent of games last year -- so far this season, that's more than doubled to almost 16 percent. As of this writing, the offensive efficiency of eight 2021-22 teams would have been the lowest in the NBA last season, and the highest-rated team, the Philadelphia 76ers at 114.9, would have placed eighth.
"I think it's important to note that offensive efficiency was sort of artificially high the last few years, said Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, whose 2018-19 team set a since-broken NBA record for offensive efficiency. "We were shooting so many free throws, getting so many and-ones. It was getting a little out of control. I think the league recognized that. I know coaches recognized that."
Now that you have more data than you ever asked for, we can start looking for the cause. The simplest explanation is the minuscule sample size of data that we're working with. As of this writing, 88 NBA games had taken place this season as opposed to 1,080 last season. The field goal percentages and 3-point percentages, which are significantly down this season, could get back to where they were last season and create an increase in scoring that approximates its previous marks.
"It's early in the season. All these teams, even with an offseason and four or five, however many preseason games, you're still trying to find your rhythm and your chemistry," said Memphis Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins, whose team is scoring two fewer points per 100 possessions than last season, but has still gone from 15th to seventh in offensive rating. "Over 82 [games], I think those numbers will definitely change league-wide."
The small sample size is certainly a real factor, but the dearth of offense is worth exploring further because it's been so dramatic, and the new variable of officiating changes has been so noticeable. As you can see in the table above, free throw attempts are down from last season -- in fact, it's the lowest free throw attempts average in league history -- but it's not enough to account for the nearly six-point drop in scoring.
Like anything in life, however, it's not that simple. The new rules leave defenders less afraid to commit fouls, which means they can be more aggressive. Going to the free throw line early and often sometimes helps scorers get into a rhythm, so that may be disrupted by a lack of calls. It's also important to look at which players the changes in officiating affect the most, and how those players affect the rest of the team.
"If they enforce [the new rules] with the discipline they're intending to throughout the course of the season, I think those are really impactful, because they're impacting the highest-impact players in most cases," Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said. "When you look at the guys that are getting the majority of those calls, they're the guys that are driving offenses, so I think that's a factor."
Indeed, it would appear that superstar players have been hit hard by the changes in officiating. Take a look at the 15 official scoring leaders from last season, and how their points and free throw attempts per game have changed so far this season (not including Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson and Kawhi Leonard, who have yet to play this season).