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White House believes massive Dem bailout may be needed to pass debt ceiling compromise
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White House believes massive Dem bailout may be needed to pass debt ceiling compromise

The prospect of needing so many votes from within the party has begun to color Biden's negotiating strategy.

Politics

White House aides privately estimate they may need to deliver as many as 100 Democratic votes to ensure an eventual debt limit deal can pass the narrowly divided House, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

The informal projection is driven by lingering doubts among Biden officials over House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ability to convince the vast majority of Republicans to back a bipartisan agreement — and the expectation that dozens of the GOP’s most conservative members are poised to rebel against any sign of a compromise.

Top Democrats have long anticipated that a debt ceiling deal would require some level of Democratic support, with Biden stressing for days that any viable solution to the standoff must be bipartisan. And with negotiators still haggling over specifics of a legislative compromise, the people familiar with the matter cautioned it’s still too early to tell exactly how many Democrats will be needed to help McCarthy secure a majority, or even if a deal will be reached.

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But the realization that the party might need to supply a sizable percentage of the House votes to avert an economically disastrous default — not to mention passage in the Democratic-controlled Senate — has increasingly shaped the White House’s negotiating strategy. Aides have hardened their stance against certain GOP-proposed budget cuts and social welfare restrictions for fear of sparking a revolt among Democrats they may ultimately need to support a deal.

“It’s important that we don’t take steps back from the very strong agenda that the president himself shepherded and led over the last two years,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “What I’ve said to Leader [Hakeem] Jeffries, and to the White House, is the president has to remember that whatever he negotiates has to go through both chambers.”

The White House has rebuffed Republican efforts to expand work requirements for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, as well as attempts to impose substantial spending cuts to a range of domestic programs, two other people familiar with the discussions said. Those disagreements contributed to the breakdown of talks last weekend and continue to complicate negotiations, with Republicans on Tuesday accusing the administration of a “lack of urgency.”

But the White House has pushed back, with officials reminding Republicans that any deal McCarthy strikes will need to bring along the dozens of Democratic votes he’ll need to get it through his chamber.

“The unanswered question is whether McCarthy can rally a majority for whatever deal he cuts when you know the big items are off the table,” said one adviser close to the White House. “They don’t have clarity on their side.”

McCarthy has continually urged his caucus to stay united in the debt ceiling fight, noting that their hand has been strengthened by their ability to pass a bill last month that lifted the borrowing cap in exchange for far-reaching spending cuts. But he also knows that a portion of GOP members will vote against any compromise bill, having called the legislation they passed the floor, not the ceiling.But the White House has pushed back, with officials reminding Republicans that any deal McCarthy strikes will need to bring along the dozens of Democratic votes he’ll need to get it through his chamber.

“The unanswered question is whether McCarthy can rally a majority for whatever deal he cuts when you know the big items are off the table,” said one adviser close to the White House. “They don’t have clarity on their side.”

McCarthy has continually urged his caucus to stay united in the debt ceiling fight, noting that their hand has been strengthened by their ability to pass a bill last month that lifted the borrowing cap in exchange for far-reaching spending cuts. But he also knows that a portion of GOP members will vote against any compromise bill, having called the legislation they passed the floor, not the ceiling.

The speaker has operated by the so-called Hastert rule, which says that only legislation with support from the majority will see the floor. With Republicans owning 222 votes, that means he can afford to lose 110 members.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday reiterated that a debt ceiling agreement would need to be something that “Democrats and Republicans in the House and the Senate will be able to vote on and agree on.”

Rank-and-file Democrats acknowledge that they will be under enormous political pressure to support any deal backed by Biden, lest they leave the economy and the president of their own party out to dry.

“If Joe Biden has his name on it, Democrats are going to vote for it,” said one House Democrat granted anonymity to discuss the private political calculations of members.

Still, Democrats preparing for the sprint to pass an eventual deal ahead of the June 1 debt ceiling deadline anticipate that McCarthy could lose a substantial chunk of his conservative wing — leaving it up to Democrats to supply somewhere between 50 and 100 votes of their own.