An insider’s guide to who’s wired — and who’s not — in Iowa

Donald Trump: Ahead and… this time, organized

As the Iowa GOP’s political director more than seven years ago, Alex Latcham stepped into Trump’s campaign office and saw thousands of caucus pledge cards collecting dust in a corner. It was three weeks before the caucuses, and Trump’s team hadn’t gotten around to entering its trove of supporter data.

Despite Trump having next to no organizational backbone in Iowa in 2016, he lost the caucuses by just 6,000 votes, coming in second to Sen. Ted Cruz.

This time around, said Latcham — who is now working as the Trump campaign’s early states director — everything is different.

They’re “taking that enthusiasm, that base of support, that record he has achieved over the last six years,” he said, and “adding a degree of sophistication and organization that wasn’t there in 2016.”

If you’re an Iowan who in the last seven years has attended a Trump rally, filled out a form, sent Trump $5 or expressed any degree of interest in hearing from his campaign — including the thousands of people who filled out pledge cards in 2015 — you’ve likely already gotten a call from his 2024 team.

His campaign estimates it has amassed north of 100,000 names with contact information of supporters in Iowa in recent years.

Trump’s Iowa operation — now with just over a dozen paid staff — recently opened an office in West Des Moines and will likely have a grand opening soon, according to a person with knowledge of the campaign’s inner workings.

Trump on recent visits to the state has made a point to incorporate more retail politics stops, earlier this month popping into a Council Bluffs Dairy Queen where, apparently confused by the product, he passed out Blizzards to customers. When he returned to Iowa last week to record a town hall with Sean Hannity, he visited a meeting of the Linn County GOP at an Elks Lodge in Cedar Rapids.

Trump’s campaign was organized enough this time to have volunteers march in 31 parades around the state on July 4.

In the coming months, the Trump campaign plans to hold hundreds of caucus training events in the state — a few in each county — to prepare precinct captains for caucus night, as well as to educate supporters who are new to the caucus. In 2016, his campaign failed to make sure supporters new to the political process in Iowa understood when and where they had to go on caucus night. There will likely be more than 1,700 precincts when it’s time to caucus on Jan. 15, and the campaign intends for Trump’s record as president to be touted at all of them.

“At the end of the day, we are going to have representatives in every single one of Iowa’s precincts,” Latcham said.

A super PAC supporting Trump has also spent heavily on national cable buys — some $15.7 million so far — in addition to roughly $2 million on TV in Iowa, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

MAGA Inc. isn’t investing in an Iowa field operation of its own, as is the case with the outside group boosting DeSantis.

Both Trump and DeSantis will be back in Iowa this week — as will almost every major candidate — when the state Republican Party hosts its annual Lincoln Dinner, the next major cattle call of the year.

Ron DeSantis: Banking on Trump’s missteps and outside help

Far behind Trump in national polling, DeSantis sees Iowa as winnable turf — particularly as the former president continues to alienate some evangelical leaders and power brokers in the state like Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Bolstered by $4 million in Iowa television ad spending from a supportive super PAC, Never Back Down, DeSantis has been racking up local endorsements and making inroads with political players like Reynolds. The popular governor, whom Trump publicly ridiculed for failing to pledge fealty to him, has made no secret of her fondness for DeSantis while officially staying neutral in the race. After Trump called her out, a state lawmaker dropped his endorsement and got behind DeSantis.

The Florida governor’s ground game in Iowa is largely run by Never Back Down. The super PAC, which plans to have five offices open by the end of the month — in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, Davenport and Sioux City — has knocked on 203,000 doors in the state. Their army of full-time workers in Iowa, consisting of 21 political staffers and 125 canvassers, has been appearing at events across the state to hand out DeSantis signs.

“You see them at regional gun shows — where none of our competitors have stepped foot — or they’ve even been at the Iowa March for Life events,” said David Polyansky, senior adviser for Never Back Down.

The super PAC said it has collected 8,500 signed caucus cards from supporters, including in Walmart parking lots and during the lunch hour at Culver’s when staffers have extra time.

“He definitely has gotten a lot of boots on the ground,” said Bob Vander Plaats, the evangelical leader in Iowa who was a national co-chair of Cruz’s campaign in 2016. “He’s up on TV. He’s there. He’s working it very, very hard.”

Vander Plaats, president of the Family Leader, an influential Christian organization, has spoken favorably of DeSantis and traveled to Tallahassee to meet with him and his wife, Casey. Many evangelicals in Iowa are high on him, too — drawn to DeSantis for his support for strict abortion bans and socially conservative platform.

Michael Demastus, a Fort Des Moines pastor who belongs to the Faith Wins political operation that seeks to organize politically-invested pastors, criticized Trump’s attack on Reynolds and his decision to skip a recent Family Leader cattle call. Deriding each as a “dumb move,” the pastor added: “That’s why people are paying a lot of attention to a guy like Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has — if I’m being honest — the broadest appeal in Iowa.”

DeSantis was among the candidates who received an indirect boost last week from an organization singularly focused on defeating Trump. The Republican Accountability PAC — run by Bill Kristol and strategist Sarah Longwell — announced it’s hitting the airwaves in Iowa with its second attack ad on Trump, highlighting his recent criticism of Reynolds.

When the DeSantis campaign shed staff earlier this month after failing to meet fundraising expectations, it suggested a refocusing of resources on Iowa. But the campaign’s reliance on Never Back Down is not without liabilities. The PAC’s insistence on appearing in Independence Day parades was met with raised eyebrows from some local county party leaders. While it’s not unheard of for a campaign to send volunteers and staff in T-shirts in place of the candidate, the idea of having representatives of a super PAC march in a local parade struck a bad note with some organizers, according to a well-connected GOP activist not involved with any of the presidential campaigns.

The campaign itself is in the process of signing a lease for office space in West Des Moines and is hiring two staffers in Iowa to join three already in place. Sophie Crowell, who ran U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson’s winning reelection bid, is overseeing DeSantis’ operation in the Hawkeye State. Former state Sen. Tim Goodwin, who worked for Reynolds, is advising the campaign, and Katherine Kaye, who also worked on Hinson’s race, was tapped to be DeSantis’ regional political director.

“We feel really good about Iowa,” Sam Cooper, political director for the DeSantis campaign, said in an interview. “We’re building an organization that’s going to last. ... This is not an overnight thing — you have to build from the ground up.”

Nationally, DeSantis’ campaign has only spent $950,000 so far on ads — all digital — but is bolstered by what Never Back Down has shelled out for TV hits across the state.

Tim Scott: Church outreach and a lot of TV

Aides to Scott, the South Carolina senator, said from the outset that much of his focus would be on winning evangelical Christians in Iowa. They’re a sizable segment of Republican voters who can appreciate a candidate fluent in scripture, who makes himself sound as much like a pastor as an elected official.

The campaign’s Iowa operation is starting to get off the ground, and they’re in the process of setting up an office in Des Moines. But Scott hasn’t announced an Iowa leadership team, and his campaign is holding off on door knocking, saying they’re instead working to identify key supporters to build out a caucus night operation, an effort taking place in part through outreach to churches.

But while Scott’s ground game isn’t massive, he has spent more than $2 million so far on TV in Iowa, part of their strategy of boosting his name recognition ahead of the first Republican debate next month.

And like DeSantis, he has a super PAC doing some of the lifting for him. Trust In the Mission PAC launched a field operation in Iowa in June, featuring paid staff and canvassers as well as some volunteers, according to a person involved with the effort. A spokesperson for the organization declined to provide specifics on its Iowa activity.

TIM PAC this week began reserving part of its staggering $40 million early-state fall ad buy. The super PAC, which was already running pro-Scott ads here over the summer, hasn’t said how much of that will go toward television in Iowa, specifically. But of the $40 million, so far, they’ve booked nearly $11 million in Iowa, per AdImpact.

Annie Kelly Kuhle, who worked as Jeb Bush’s Iowa state director, is the Scott campaign’s senior adviser in Iowa, while Jeff Glassburner is state director. The campaign employs four other staffers in the state.

Three Republican political operatives in Iowa who are not yet supporting a candidate but are in touch with rank-and-file Republicans here cited Scott as someone whose name increasingly comes up in conversation.

Mike Pence: Beat expectations or ‘it will be over’

No other campaign has as much at stake in Iowa as Pence’s, with one senior adviser acknowledging to POLITICO that “it will be over” if the former vice president doesn’t overperform.

Pence is the only candidate to have formally launched his campaign here. He’s made 13 trips to the state since leaving the vice presidency. And his campaign has said it expects him to campaign in all 99 counties.

Pence has four paid staffers on the ground, according to his campaign. And one of Pence’s closest aides, Chip Saltsman, who led the winning 2008 caucus campaign of Mike Huckabee, is guiding Pence’s early moves in the state.

On his biggest Iowa stage yet, though, Pence got punched in the mouth, drawing a decidedly mixed response from an audience of about 1,000 conservatives when Tucker Carlson goaded him over support for the war in Ukraine.

“It was definitely a stumble,” Vander Plaats said. “Maybe it wasn’t his best performance, but I think because of the built up trust that he has had with that [evangelical] base for a number of years, I don’t think it’s gonna be the determining factor of his campaign.”

Pence’s allied super PAC, Committed to America PAC, has a much rosier view of Pence’s outlook than most observers, saying their internal tracking polls have Pence in second place in Iowa behind Trump. After nine weeks in the field, Pence canvassers, which number about 30, have knocked on over 215,000 doors and collected data from over 34,000 potential caucus goers. Committed to America, through its vendor, also maintains an Iowa staff of eight. The super PAC has spent $350,000 on cable ads for Pence, all in Iowa media markets.

“We have seen an increase in openness to Vice President Pence within the last week,” a spokesperson told POLITICO. “Former Trump or DeSantis voters have been engaging with us more consistently, more friendly, and more in depth than they had in the past.”

The measuring stick for Pence and every candidate other than Trump or DeSantis is different. The imperative is not to win, but over-perform. After all, there’s more than one ticket out of Iowa.

“No, some of these folks are not going to get first place in Iowa, even if they win the lottery,” said Jeff Kaufmann, chair of the Iowa GOP. “But there’s going to be more than just the winner of Iowa walk out of here in a metaphorical ticker tape parade.”

Vivek Ramaswamy: 62 visits, and one viral town hall

Ramaswamy has held more events in Iowa than most candidates in the race, appearing 62 times in 20 counties since launching in February.

It appears to be paying off, helping the much buzzed-about longshot candidate build a network of enthusiastic supporters.

Kaufmann, the Iowa GOP chair, recalled a town hall event this month with Ramaswamy in Ottumwa, a video from which went viral online after the candidate welcomed in a heckler and invited her to ask questions. Republicans in the room seemed impressed by Ramaswamy’s openness to talking with all of them, Kaufmann said.

“And of course all these folks are avid caucus goers and they are ultimately going to tell probably another 10, 20 people,” he said. “It was absolutely worth as much as a $100,000 television buy.”

Ramaswamy employs six staff in the state, said campaign spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin. They’ve assembled 148 volunteers so far who are driving their grassroots push in Iowa and attending local GOP events and parades on behalf of Ramaswamy.

Former state Senate President Jake Chapman and former Secretary of State Matt Schultz, both of whom supported Cruz’s 2016 caucus victory, are serving as co-chairs of Ramaswamy’s operation. And state Sen. Rocky De Witt is now backing Ramaswamy, the campaign told POLITICO.

A Hindu competing for the support of many devout evangelical Christians, Ramaswamy has held repeated meetings and roundtables with Iowa pastors — faith leaders who were initially skeptical of the 37-year-old biotech entrepreneur. Some are now publicly singing his praises.

During a private meeting, one pastor questioned Ramaswamy on his faith and asked him to consider the teachings of Christ, Demastus recalled. Upon meeting some of the same ministers at a follow-up event, Ramaswamy “remembered the challenge” and recounted lessons he took from a recent reading of the New Testament. “This wasn’t rehearsed. This was him being genuine, from his heart,” Demastus said. “That spoke pretty clear to us.”

Yes, he’s still a longshot. But if the self-funder opens his wallet even more, Ramaswamy could make serious moves in the state. He has spent very little on ads in Iowa, just $40,000 on cable and radio.

Nikki Haley: Tapping into the Iowa women

The first declared candidate to campaign in Iowa after launching in mid-February, Haley drew strong early crowds and the attention of Iowans who were ready to get the caucus campaigning process underway.

But Haley is still trying to catch fire. More than five months into her bid — and after a couple dozen events in Iowa — she is running a slim operation. Her sole paid staff member in Iowa is her political director in the state, Billy Mackey, who worked as Rep. Zach Nunn’s (R-Iowa) campaign manager last year.

“We are focused right now on recruiting active grassroots volunteers, not just leaving pamphlets in doors,” campaign spokesperson Nachama Soloveichik said, adding that they aren’t currently engaged in mass phone banking or door-knocking, but rather are asking supporters in their network to work their own phone contact lists.

A “Women for Nikki” initiative that Haley launched in Iowa is part of the team’s grassroots program that will ultimately also become a caucusing operation, Soloveichik said.

A super PAC supporting Haley, SFA Fund, has been using texts and digital advertisements to drive turnout to Haley’s events here, and will later expand to buying up other forms of advertising to help her, according to a person involved in the effort.

The super PAC late last week began buying television ad time to run throughout August and into early September, so far roughly $1.6 million in Iowa, AdImpact shows.

Haley’s leadership team in the state includes state Rep. Austin Harris, state Sen. Chris Cournoyer, Dawn Roberts — the former Polk County GOP chair and wife of the late Steve Roberts, a longtime Iowa Republican operative and state party chair — and Emily Sukup-Schmitt, whom the campaign describes as a “millennial business leader, mother and community leader,” and whose family owns a farm manufacturing equipment company in the state.

Chris Christie: Iowa, where?

“This is probably going to be your shortest section,” joked Karl Rickett, Christie’s spokesperson.

The former New Jersey governor and chief Trump antagonist of the Republican field has made no secret about seeing New Hampshire — a state better made for a more moderate-minded Republican — as his top priority.

“We don’t have an Iowa operation and we don’t have any plans to have an Iowa operation, nor do we have any immediate plans to go there,” Rickett said, noting Christie is holding events in New Hampshire, and as of this past Friday, South Carolina.

He’s not kidding. Christie, who flipped pork chops and surveyed cows before taking the soapbox stage at the Iowa State Fair in August 2015, won’t be returning this year. He sat out the recent Family Leader summit and will do the same for this week’s Lincoln Dinner.

Kaufmann said it was a “ridiculous decision” by Christie to be “ignoring Iowa.”

But let’s be honest: Christie probably wasn’t going to win over many Iowans, anyway. He finished 10th here in 2016.

Asa Hutchinson: Asking Iowans, ‘Can you spare $1?’

Hutchinson, the mild-mannered former governor of Arkansas, has traveled more to Iowa than any of the other early states, believing voters here are most likely to connect with his own upbringing of conservative Christianity and farming in rural Arkansas.

It almost certainly won’t be enough. Hutchinson has yet to rise above 1 percent in the polls. But he is not without something of an operation.

While Taylor Mattox, Hutchinson’s Iowa state director, is the campaign’s only paid staff member in the state, a super PAC supporting Hutchinson has a door-knocking effort underway. America Strong & Free Action, which is being advised by Republican strategist Austin Barbour, the nephew of former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, intends to reach 100,000 doors in the next six weeks, Barbour said. The group began its work in Iowa a couple months ago.

“We’re trying to hit each door three times,” Barbour said of their list of targets.

Hutchinson has spent 40 days in Iowa this year, taking 12 trips to the state. That’s opposed to three trips to New Hampshire and four to South Carolina.

He’ll spend most of August based out of Iowa, too, making his final push to sign up 40,000 campaign donors in an effort to get on the primary debate stage Aug. 23.

“Every interaction he has, he’s trying to find a way to engage those people and help them help him get on the debate stage,” said Rob Burgess, Hutchinson’s campaign manager. “He’s out there shaking hands and asking them, ‘Can you spare $1?’”

Doug Burgum: Leaning on Huckabee’s adviser

The wealthy North Dakota governor hasn’t exactly been camping out in Iowa since he launched in June. But he isn’t writing it off altogether.

Burgum, who is largely avoiding social and cultural issues on the stump, has made a couple trips to the state, and he has already run $2.5 million worth of ads in Iowa, according to AdImpact.

Eric Woolson, who helmed Mike Huckabee’s caucus-winning 2008 campaign in Iowa, is working as Burgum’s state director. A person involved with the campaign and granted anonymity to discuss strategy said the team has so far made contact with almost every county party chair in the state, and Burgum will attend upcoming events like the Lincoln Dinner and Iowa State Fair.

Perry Johnson: Hosting a Big & Rich concert in Des Moines

The Michigan businessman has, like Ramaswamy, shuttled around Iowa on a branded bus, attending small meet-and-greets and all the Iowa cattle calls.

George Khoury, a Michigan political operative, is Johnson’s Iowa state director, while the campaign has “an aggressive hiring plan in place for Iowa specifically,” said spokesperson Elizabeth Stoddart. Perry and several staff members have been traveling to Iowa “almost weekly,” she said.

The state may make or break him before the first debate. Next month, Johnson is putting on a free concert in Des Moines featuring the band Big & Rich, which includes the outspoken conservative country artist John Rich. The event, open to anyone who makes a donation to Johnson’s campaign, is part of a last-ditch effort by the longshot candidate to qualify for the first Republican debate.

Beyond a national cable and satellite buy, Johnson has spent just under $500,000 on ads in Iowa.

The ultra-longshots

Ryan Binkley, the pastor and Texas businessman, does not register in polling. But he has spent around $1 million on television ads, all in Iowa. He’s slated to speak at the Lincoln Dinner this week, and he’ll be on the stump at the Iowa State Fair, according to campaign spokesperson Diane Moca. Since May, Binkley has “spent multiple days in Iowa every week,” Moca said, including holding events “in more than half of the state’s 99 counties.”

Larry Elder, a California-based conservative talk show host, has appeared in the state more than 12 days since June, attending community events, speaking at county party meetings and talking with business leaders and local reporters, according to Matt Ciepielowski, who is running the campaign.

A spokesperson for Francis Suarez, the Miami mayor, did not respond to a request for comment. Nor did a spokesperson for Will Hurd, the former Texas congressman. Both are also scheduled to speak at the Lincoln Dinner.

Everyone else from Trump down is around.

Kaufmann and his wife walked into a restaurant recently outside Des Moines and saw Johnson, the Michigan businessman, dining. The same thing happened when Kaufmann was eating in Davenport earlier this summer, looking up as Hutchinson greeted him with “Mr. Chairman, how are you?”

“I don’t think Ron DeSantis is going to be able to get to 99 counties, or President Trump’s going to get to 99 counties,” Kaufmann said.

But, he has no doubt their operations will extend to all corners of the state. (A top DeSantis official said in an interview that the candidate does, in fact, plan to hit each county).

Kaufmann said he thinks Trump and DeSantis will likely have operations that extend to all corners of the state. He sees signs of life from the campaigns of Ramaswamy and Scott “everywhere I go.” And Haley seems to have a solid presence on the ground, too, he said.

“I almost feel like screaming when I hear people say, ‘Well, Iowa never predicts who the next president is,’” Kaufmann fumed. “For crying out loud! We’re not expected to. We vet candidates for the nation.”