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‘A second Afghanistan’: Doubts over Russia’s war prosecution
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‘A second Afghanistan’: Doubts over Russia’s war prosecution

Russia’s lack of progress in its war against Ukraine has been noted by analysts since it launched a second phase.

International

Russia appeared to become bogged down in a new military deadlock in eastern Ukraine during the 10th week of its war, as its forces made incremental advances but failed to score any significant breakthroughs.

At the same time, Russia attempted to prepare to annex the regions it holds economically and administratively, while the United States prepared to approve massive amounts of new military funding for Ukraine and the European Union readied itself to ban Russian oil.

Since it launched a second phase of the war on April 18 focusing on the eastern Donbas region, Russia’s lack of spectacular progress has been noted by analysts.

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“Lack of unit skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements,” said the United Kingdom’s defence intelligence on April 30.

Although Russia has put hundreds of Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems and drones out of action, Ukraine still controls the majority of its airspace, the UK says.

The Institute for the Study of War is also unimpressed by the second phase. “Russian attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions along the pre-February 24 front lines continue to fail to make substantial progress,” it said on May 1.

“Repeated Russian failures to capture villages such as Zolote and Vilne suggest that pre-invasion Ukrainian defensive positions are too strong for Russian troops to storm.”

Russia has even failed to dislodge some 2,000 Ukrainian marines from Mariupol’s Azovstal plant, even though it formally declared victory over the city on April 21.

“Ukraine is slowly being turned into a second Afghanistan,” says Political Science and Geopolitics Lecturer Aref Alobeid.

“When the Russians entered Afghanistan they were seen as a huge empire. Ten years later they were defeated and scattered. I believe the Americans are trying to achieve the same scenario here,” he told Al Jazeera.