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Betting markets swing in favor of Gov. Gavin Newsom as California recall effort enters home stretch

Betting markets swing in favor of Gov. Gavin Newsom as California recall effort enters home stretch

California Gov. Gavin Newsom faces a tough recall election next week, but the odds of his staying in office are looking more favorable.


The campaign to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom lost so much momentum in the past month that bettors now say there’s over an 85% chance that the effort fails.

According to political betting website PredictIt, the Democrat’s odds of staying in office after the recall election on Sept. 14, reached their highest mark last week since early July.

On Thursday, a bet on a successful recall (meaning a wager that Newsom would be ousted) cost 10 cents on PredictIt, down from 26 cents a week earlier and a high of 34 cents in early August. As of Sunday, they price had risen slightly to 14 cents.

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Correct bets on PredictIt redeem at $1, so a wager at 10 cents would earn 90 cents should the recall prevail. The price of a bet in favor of a recall hasn’t closed below 10 cents since May 20, according to PredictIt. The low of the campaign was 8 cents, a few days earlier in May.

Newsom and the Democratic Party have sought to make up ground as polling has shown higher GOP enthusiasm for voting in the recall, even though California is a reliably blue state. The California governor has gotten boosts from celebrities and high-profile politicians such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Democrats are returning early voting ballots at a much larger rate than Republicans.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the former California attorney general and an ex-U.S. senator from the state, is set to campaign with Newsom this week. President Joe Biden, who’s contending with low polling himself after a troubled military exit from Afghanistan and rising Covid-19 infections across much of the U.S., has said he would campaign for Newsom.