The world is worried Putin is about to invade Ukraine. Here's why
Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move is being watched closely by experts.
President Vladimir Putin is being watched closely by experts and officials who fear that Russia might be planning a military escalation with its neighbor Ukraine.
Tens of thousands of Russian troops have reportedly gathered at the border with Ukraine, and experts fear Russia could be about to stage a repeat of its 2014 invasion and annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, which prompted global outrage and sanctions on Moscow.
“We all should be very worried, to be honest, I do share this assessment,” Michal Baranowski, director and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw Office, told CNBC when asked if Russia could be about to embark upon military action against Ukraine, describing Russia’s highly tense relationship with Ukraine as being a conflict “under the threshold of war.”
“This assessment is shared by many here in Warsaw and in Washington DC,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Wednesday, adding that “we are seeing very significant buildup in threats on the border with Ukraine. So it’s really a key moment for the West to step up pressure against Putin.”
Last week, U.S. officials reportedly warned their European counterparts that Russia could be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine. The country’s own defense ministry claimed in early November that about 90,000 troops were massing on the border while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that there were nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers at the border, Reuters reported.
For his part, when asked whether Russia is plotting a military invasion in Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin dismissed such a notion as “alarmist” in an interview with Rossiya 1 last weekend.
Russia has also sought to play down the movements of its troops, with Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stating last week that “the movement of troops on our territory shouldn’t be a cause for anyone’s concern,” AP reported. CNBC has contacted Russia’s defense ministry for further comment.
Concerns over Russia’s possible next move when it comes to Ukraine, which used to be part of the Soviet Union before its dissolution in 1991, come against a wider backdrop of deteriorating relations between Russia and its allies on one side — and Europe and the U.S., on the other.
Tensions have emerged on a number of fronts from energy and political meddling to cyber warfare and migrants, with Russia accused of helping Belarus to orchestrate a growing migrant crisis on the EU’s doorstep.