The disturbance we have been watching east of the Bahamas is getting slightly more organized. Tropical Disturbance #1 has a decent chance to eventually become a named storm, but it’s in a competition with Tropical Disturbance #2 on the other side of the Atlantic to see which one gets named first. The next two names on the list are Odette and Peter.

The forecasts for Tropical Disturbance #1 have consistently shown it tracking just offshore of the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England. It’s not 100 percent certain that the center of circulation will stay offshore – forecasts for weak and developing systems are always iffy. But the atmospheric pattern would seem to favor the bands of gusty winds and heavy rain staying mostly on the east side of the system over the ocean. So this storm doesn’t seem like a big threat at this time.

It will generate dangerous swells at East Coast beaches, however. And we’ll have to keep an eye on it. We will be more confident in the forecast once it’s better developed.